Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is “facing a historic choice” following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, according to Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a leading voice on U.S. policy toward Iran.

Speaking in an interview after the strikes on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, Dubowitz said the supreme leader must now decide whether to escalate militarily or return to the negotiating table.

“Khamenei is at a crossroads,” Dubowitz said. “He can either double down on defiance and risk further devastation, or he can choose de-escalation and diplomacy. There’s no middle ground left after this.”

The comments come amid growing tensions between Washington and Tehran after President Donald Trump confirmed that the U.S. carried out a precision bombing campaign on key Iranian nuclear infrastructure using B-2 bombers and bunker-busting munitions. Trump called the operation a “spectacular military success,” while Iran condemned it as an act of war.

Dubowitz, who has advised previous administrations on Iran policy, warned that Iran’s next move could define the region’s future.

“If the regime retaliates, it will trigger a second wave of U.S. action — possibly even broader in scope. If it retreats, it opens a path for sanctions relief and stability,” he added.

Iran has yet to formally announce its military response, though officials have placed missile units on alert and threatened action through proxy forces in the region.

Meanwhile, international pressure is building for restraint. Diplomatic channels remain open, but the situation remains highly volatile.